August 18, 2011
Dun & Bradstreet, the world’s leading provider of global business information, knowledge and insight, today, launched its publication, India 2020 – Economy Outlook. The study evaluates the prospects of the economy during the next ten years based on the fundamental strength of the Indian economy.
Mr. Kaushal Sampat, President & CEO, Dun & Bradstreet India said, “By 2020, we expect India’s GDP to cross the US$ 5 trillion mark, driven by a combination of robust private consumption demand, increased infrastructure spending, substantial growth in investment activity, strong growth in the services sector and conducive policies. The significant contribution from the BIMAROU states, which have so far lagged behind in terms of development, would be one of the noteworthy changes to look forward to in the dynamics of India’s growth story.”
“Growth-enabling policies and concentrated efforts by the governments, both at the centre and the state, to channelise resources in an inclusive manner along with significant improvement in governance would be imperative for India to achieve high and inclusive growth. Moreover, the government’s thrust on infrastructure development is expected to provide the “big push” to the Indian economy going forward.” he further added.
D&B’s “India 2020” was released by Chief Guest, Ms Shyamala Gopinath, Former Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India. Dr Pronab Sen, Principal Advisor, Planning Commission, Government of India; Dr Shubhashis Gangopadhyay, India Development Foundation; Ms Nupur Mitra, Executive Director, Indian Overseas Bank; Dr Alok Bharadwaj, Senior Vice President, Canon India were the Key Note Speakers. Leading names from the ministry and corporate sector participated in a panel discussion on “India 2020: A decade of inclusive and equitable high growth” that followed thereafter.
About D&B’s India 2020: Economy Outlook
In the publication ‘India 2020 – Economy Outlook’, D&B attempts to evaluate and analyse the prospects of the Indian economy in achieving this goal during the current decade based on the fundamental strength of the economy. The forecasts for the current decade can help us to prepare for the future challenges and seize opportunities that lie ahead. The report is segmented into five sections covering forecasts for key macroeconomic variables, growth prospects for some of the Indian states, potential growth drivers of the economy, major policy initiatives that would facilitate India’s economic journey and growth concerns during the current decade.
India’s macro-economic outlook 2020:
- India is expected to be more than US$ 5 trillion (current market price) economy by FY20
- India’s growth would be driven by rapidly expanding services sector
- Strong growth in domestic savings will support domestic investment
- Although consumption will continue to be the major contributor to GDP in the current decade, its share is expected to decline gradually due to significant increase in share of domestic investment
- Substantial rise in private investment activity and surge in infrastructure investment to drive overall investment
- Rising income levels coupled increasing young working-age population will lead to significant growth in private final consumption expenditure
- Under consumption, share of discretionary spending expected to rise significantly to 72.0% of private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) by FY20 as compare to 59.7% during FY10
Economic growth drivers:
- Substantial investments in physical, social and agricultural infrastructure will be the key growth drivers which will enable the economy to achieve ‘inclusive growth’ over the current decade
- Infrastructure investment (as measured by Gross Fixed Capital Formation) driven by rising demand for infrastructure facilities, bulging of the middle class and an increasing working-age population is expected to surge to 12.1% of GDP by FY20 from an estimated 7.0% of GDP in FY11
- Increased focus is expected on infrastructure development in new townships/rural areas which will provide further impetus to economic growth
- Improvement in expenditure on education is expected to support in moving towards inclusive growth
- Huge expected investment in agriculture sector to around 3.8% of GDP by FY20 as against 2.6% of GDP in FY11 will facilitate agriculture sector to grow by around 4.3% during FY11-FY20
A decade of more inclusive growth–State-wise analysis:
- Maharashtra, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh will lead the development sweeps in the country by 2020
- The BIMAROU states, (Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Orissa & Uttar Pradesh) which have been considered sick in terms of development are expected to begin leveraging their huge potential in terms of vast natural resources and manpower to contribute significantly to India’s growth story during the current decade
- Growth in the BIMAROU states is expected to gain traction, especially in the second half of the current decade; their GSDP (gross state domestic product) contribution to incremental real GDP would expand to 28.0% during FY16-FY20 as compared to 24.0% during FY11–FY15
- Four of the five BIMAROU states expected to see double digit average growth during the current decade
- Per capita income of Bihar and MP expected to triple by 2020, although remaining below national average
Moving ahead on the reform agenda – need of the hour:
- The centre and state governments are expected to continue to create growth-enabling policies in the field of agriculture, industry, fiscal, financial and environment and increase their emphasis on development of social infrastructure. As India moves ahead to achieve economic and social development, we anticipate significant improvement in governance and reduction in corruption.
About Dun & Bradstreet (D&B):
Dun & Bradstreet (NYSE:DNB), the world’s leading source of global business information, knowledge and insight, has been enabling companies to Decide with Confidence® for 170 years. D&B’s global commercial database contains more than 200 million business records. The database is enhanced by D&B’s proprietary DUNSRight® Quality Process, which transforms the enormous amount of data collected daily into decision-ready insight. Through the D&B Worldwide Network – an unrivaled alliance of D&B and leading business information providers around the world – customers gain access to the world’s largest and highest quality global commercial business information database.
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