The COVID-19 outbreak is undeniably a great human tragedy. Besides the impact on human lives, the pandemic has already caused severe disruption to the global economy. Supply chain fallout over the COVID-19 outbreak is snowballing and impacting businesses of all size. Businesses that understand the true impact to their own operations and act proactively to diversify their portfolio of suppliers and limit their dependencies, could see far less interruption in their operations.
Dun & Bradstreet is monitoring the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak to businesses globally and can offer visibility into your supply chain as granular as on a PIN code level. From specific reports to full data and analytics, we’re here to help.
Dr. Singh, Global Chief Economist, Dun & Bradstreet touched upon three key areas in the webinar:
- Trends in COVID-19 cases and rebooting
- Business sentiments, performance and risks
- How to create an effective business plan for 2021
Speaking at the webinar, Dr. Singh pointed out how the real economy is retracting from the depth of its collapse following the outbreak of the pandemic and government enforced lockdowns. This is in line with the trend in high frequency indicators such as industrial production, exports, credit card payments, unemployment rate, etc.
He further pointed out that the impact of the crisis has been asymmetric, affecting different parts of the world to differing degrees at different times. As of Nov 20, 2020, only 6% of 49.3 mn businesses from China, which are in Dun & Bradstreet data cloud, were disrupted. That figure stands at 94% in France and 90% in the UK.
Mr. Sunil Mehta, Chief Executive, Indian Banks’ Association said, “Atmanirbhar Bharat entails 3 lac crores of guarantee scheme to scheduled commercial banks as well as the NBFCs for lending to the MSME sector. This gives 100% guarantee for fresh lending in form of working capital term loans which is repayable in 4 years.”
Shri Ashwani Bhatia, Managing Director, IT & Stressed Assets Resolution Group, State Bank of India said, “91% of our work is done digitally, using the YONO platform, UPI, internet banking, etc. In the next 5-7 years, it will become close to 100% and branches will become service points for non-financial transactions.”
Dr. Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist, Dun & Bradstreet discussed how up to 100 million people across the world may be pushed into extreme poverty due to COVID-19 over the next 1-2 years, and how that will affect demand revival.
Dr. Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist, Dun & Bradstreet in his presentation discussed how the share of prompt payments across countries like Germany, Brazil, Australia, Mexico and India have deteriorated since the pandemic started. He further added that the natural outcome of any recession is an increase in delayed payments and business failures. He also explained the 10 key risks to businesses.
Mr. Subir Das, General Manager, ECGC Ltd. spoke about why exports are important for economies like India. He pointed out, “When it comes to trade, the data from several multinational agencies is showing a very grim picture. World Bank projections show that the decline can be between 30-32%.” He also highlighted the importance of proper risk management in these uncertain times. “Companies need to perform due diligence on the buyer, the market and the contract before engaging in cross-border transactions,” he added
The session was moderated by Sam Tidswell-Norrish, International CMO, Dun & Bradstreet.
Dr. Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist, Dun & Bradstreet in his presentation discussed on how in countries like India and Japan the broad market index are close to pre-pandemic levels while the GDP is painting a very different picture. He also spoke about the 10 key risks for businesses
Abhijit Prasad, Managing Director & Chief Product Officer, Greensill, spoke at length about the triple whammy when it comes to access to finance in supply chains, “Bullwhip effect is a distribution channel phenomenon which means, the further you are from the end consumer, the propensity for orders to be more variable than the actual demand is higher.”
Dr. Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist, Dun & Bradstreet, started the #webinar by discussing the four factors that are shaping the next normal – reduced #income levels, rise in #uncertainty, social distancing and resilience gap. Talking about India’s cost competitiveness and market size, he said, “India is low in terms of manufacturing cost index and very high in terms of demand. In the next normal world, global companies will look for low-cost manufacturing destinations like India, which have a big domestic market.”
The presentation was followed by a Q&A with Mr. Thiru R., COO, Kinara Capital. Speaking about the parameters that MSMEs should focus on for better credit in post #COVID times, he said, “MSMEs need to focus on 2 ‘D’s in the current situation – #Digitize and #Diversify. I will advise MSMEs to start using digital options like registering for Udyam Aadhar, digitizing all business documents, and making more banking and GST transactions.”
The audience asked focused questions about the preparedness of MSMEs and the path of recovery for them.
The webinar started with Shri Devendra Kumar Singh, IAS, Additional Secretary & Development Commissioner, Ministry of MSME, Government of India, talking about how 70% of MSMEs use their own funds, making the percentage of people who have access to formal credit very small. He further spoke about GEM, The Government e-commerce platform for MSMEs and stated how MSMEs are the strongest pillar of Atmanirbhar Bharat and have proven that if they want, they can do it.
Our next speaker Dr. Arun Singh, Chief Economist, Dun & Bradstreet, shared how MSMEs need to launch a Cash War Room. He explained why this should be done for 30-40 mins every day to help better manage cash flow. He further explained out how according to a Dun & Bradstreet survey, Most businesses are going to defer or cancel capital expenditure in order to manage expenses.
We also had a very engaged Q&A session where Shri Devendra Kumar Singh explained how to stay updated about various measures being taken by the Government to help MSMEs. Furthermore, Dr. Arun Singh answered questions about the sectors that have the most potential in the post COVID era.
The webinar started with Prasenjit Roy, Senior Executive Vice President & CMO, Netmagic Solutions, talking about how majority of companies have now moved from a “reacting” phase to an “adapting” phase where they are reducing non-essential costs, automating process flows, etc.
Our next speaker Hitesh Sethi, Head - Analytics Advisory, Dun & Bradstreet India, shared his learnings from Dun & Bradstreet’s COVID Impact Index and how there are signs of financial distress: slower payments, unpaid debt, and worsening business viability
Our final speaker of the day Rajat Sahu, Vice President - Marketing & Alliances, InstaSafe Teachnologies, pointed out the importance of the 5 key elements of customer success, namely proactiveness, engagement, value-selling, customer management and customer support.
The presentation was followed by an interactive panel discussion moderated by Nayna Banerjee, Leader, Marketing & Communications, Dun & Bradstreet, India on the importance of collaboration between CRO and CMO and how customization and personalization is the way forward to win clients’ confidence.
The COVID-19 outbreak comes at a time when global economic headwinds were alreAs the pandemic develops, the role of finance leaders is also being elevated to new heights. Charged with helping to grow the business profitably and the management of an ever-increasing array of risks, the key decisions that the finance leaders take now will likely decide the sustainability of their businesses in the long term. Although many are beginning to leverage modern tools to mitigate risk, there is much work to be done to advance the effectiveness and business results of risk management approaches.
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The COVID-19 outbreak comes at a time when global economic headwinds were already high and threatens to disrupt the global economy with fears of recession looming in many countries. A fall in the optimism levels amidst heightened uncertainty has led to a ‘double whammy’ – closure of businesses leading to global supply chain disruptions, and a steep fall in the consumption.
However, the impact of COVID-19 outbreak will be disproportionate. While some sectors will be severely impacted, some will see a positive impact. The recovery for some sectors will be quick, whereas some will take a much longer time. Hence it is important for business leaders to be aware of these outlooks to shift sales activities to opportunities that are less likely to have disruptions and fill pipeline gaps.
Dr. Arun Singh, Chief Economist, Dun & Bradstreet India speaks on the topic, “One year outlook of the economy after COVID-19 and where we are headed”.