Business Optimism Index for Q3 2025 declines, but sub-indices indicate resilience in the domestic economy

The Dun & Bradstreet Business Optimism Index reduced by 2.3% (q-o-q) for Q3 2025

Mumbai, July 23, 2025: Dun & Bradstreet, a global leader in business decisioning data and analytics, released the Business Optimism Index (BOI) for Q3 2025, which declined to 117—marking a 2.3% decline over the previous quarter. The modest decline was driven by a fall in optimism in the large and the medium sized firms, while small firms showed resilience. The moderation in sentiment stems largely from global economic uncertainty, prompting businesses to take a measured approach. However, the domestic outlook remains strong, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions. A marginal decline in selling volume q-o-q suggests businesses are skeptic about evolving demand conditions. The decline may reflect a dip in optimism around export orders, which had risen sharply in the previous quarter due to frontloading ahead of anticipated tariff announcements. In contrast, sentiment around domestic orders remained strong. The decline in optimism regarding selling prices likely reflects the subdued inflationary pressures in the economy. Overall, the survey indicates that firms are navigating the current landscape with measured confidence, balancing global risks with robust domestic opportunities. The Dun & Bradstreet Business Optimism Index, which has been tracking the changing business sentiment of India Inc. since 2002, continues to serve as a reliable leading indicator of India’s economic growth, maintaining a strong correlation of approximately 80% with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Dun & Bradstreet Business Optimism Index

Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist, Dun & Bradstreet said,

“While the Q3 2025 decline in the Dun & Bradstreet Business Optimism Index reflects a degree of caution among larger firms, the underlying resilience of the domestic economy stands out. Strong consumption fundamentals, rising investment activity, and targeted policy are lending support to business confidence, particularly among small businesses. The uptick in optimism around the domestic macroeconomic environment, despite global headwinds, signals trust in India’s domestic growth momentum. As trade policy uncertainty clouds global demand, businesses are looking inward, with over half prioritizing the domestic market for future growth. Going forward, the recently signed India–UK Free Trade Agreement is expected to open new avenues for market access, improving trade through supply chain diversification. These developments are likely to boost business sentiment by enhancing export opportunities and driving innovation. Together, stronger external competitiveness and domestic market strength can sustain optimism and help Indian businesses navigate global volatility with greater confidence.”

Key findings from the Q3 2025 survey

• The optimism for sales volume decreased by 1 percentage points in Q3 2025 compared to the previous quarter Q2 2025. The food, beverages, metals, and transportation sectors are the most optimistic, while construction and information & communication sectors show lower optimism.
• The optimism for domestic orders rose by 3 percentage points in Q3 2025 compared to the previous quarter Q2 2025. The electricals, electronics, mining, textiles and leather sectors remain the most optimistic, while financial and insurance activities and automotive sectors report the lowest optimism.
• The optimism for export orders fell by 1 percentage points in Q3 2025 compared to the previous quarter Q2 2025. Electronics, metals, textile and leather sectors lead optimism, while financial and insurance activities and automotive sectors remain least optimistic.
• The optimism for selling prices fell by 11 percentage points in Q3 2025 compared to the previous quarter Q2 2025. The metals, hospitality, and food and beverages sectors show the highest optimism, while electronics and automotive sectors report lower confidence.
• The optimism for net profit fell by 4 percentage points in Q3 2025 compared to the previous quarter Q2 2025. The financial and insurance, construction, and hospitality sectors are the most optimistic, while electronics, automotive, and capital goods sectors show lower optimism.
• The optimism for the global macroeconomic environment fell by 5 percentage points in Q3 2025 compared to the previous quarter Q2 2025. The chemicals sector, along with utilities and professional and administrative services, remain most optimistic, while automotive and hospitality sectors show lower confidence.
• The optimism for employment fell by 15 percentage points in Q3 2025 compared to the previous quarter Q2 2025. The hospitality, food & beverages, and textiles sectors exhibit high optimism, while automotive, transportation, and capital goods sectors show lower optimism.
• The optimism for the domestic macroeconomic environment increased by 8 percentage points in Q3 2025 compared to the previous quarter Q2 2025. The information & communication, financial services, wholesale & retail trade, and transportation sectors show the highest confidence, while hospitality and capital goods sectors are least optimistic.
• The optimism for input costs fell by 1 percentage points in Q3 2025 compared to the previous quarter Q2 2025. The metals, food and beverages sectors show higher optimism, while information & communication and financial services sectors report lower optimism
• The optimism for inventory levels saw an increase of 10 percentage points in Q3 2025 compared to the previous quarter Q2 2025. Mining and automotive sectors are the most optimistic, while metals and food and beverages sectors report the lowest optimism.